Why it is time to wake up about earthquakes

Here are several archive photos of earthquake damage - mainly from the Alaska 1964 and San Andreas/Southern California 1971 earthquakes. They clearly depict the kind of damage Seattle (and other cities in the northwest) should expect from a major seismic event along any number of fault lines in this region - particularly given the kind of soils and fill work done early in Seattle's development - making large parts of this city particularly prone to major subsidence due to "liquifaction" and landslide along the many steep hills throughout the city (for more on that, see this excellent article by Jorgen Johansson from the University of Washington Department of Civil Engineering. And this website run by Richard Caulkins at the Department of Civil Engineering at Cal Poly Pomona) .

If you live in Seattle like I do, all I can say is... we are in for a "world of hurt" in this town , and it is long past time that the politicians grapple with this reality. But first, from the Loma Prieta 1989 in Oakland, some insight regarding the death and destruction to come - when earthquake causes the Alaskan Way Viaduct to collapse:


The structure "pancaked" onto the lower levels, making the task of reaching victims a logistical nightmare.

What is the City of Seattle doing to plan for that contingency on the Alaskan Way Viaduct? Since they made the decision to keep the structure up and in operation, the heightened risk of collapse by doing so would dictate that an enhanced plan for rescue and evacuation from the structure be put in place.

Otherwise, in the event of a similar earthquake as Loma Prieta 1989 (which was moderate compared to Alaska 1964), the entire Seattle Fire Department capability in the downtown area might have to focus on only one problem: the Viaduct. What will happen to the rest of downtown?

In the midst of an entire region wracked by earthquake damage, the Nimitz Freeway after Loma Prieta 1989 was a scene of horror - Seattle should expect even greater destruction, because the Alaskan Way Viaduct was built almost entirely on fill next to the shoreline - subsidence due to soil liquefaction could completely collapse both surface and elevated road infrastructure - even while the highly-compromised adjacent seawall floods out the entire lower downtown.

Think of New Orleans 2005: in a matter of hours after a severe earthquake in Seattle, the lower downtown area could, geologically-speaking, revert back to its pre-1890's condition from the dual effects of liquefaction and collapse of the seawall - subjecting the fill there to unprotected tidal impacts.

This is Anchorage 1964 - liquifaction and faultline cracks destroyed large tracts of the downtown. Some modern buildings, like the Westward Hilton in the background above, faired well - all things considered. But getting in and out of the Hilton by vehicle was still impossible.

Because roadways were impassable for vehicle traffic in many areas. Huge holes and cracks opened up all over the region - making roads useless.

The ground rose and fell - undulating for almost nine minutes. Rising and falling like the waves in an ocean storm - ten feet up followed by ten feet down - finally leaving most of the city in a heap. Liquefaction caused soil to, quite literally, collapse - as seen here.

It is important to remember that even minor earthquakes can completely cut off roadways, making it impossible for cars to get around. This faultline crack was from Nisqually 2001.

In the Great Alaska Earthquake, some cars ended up ten or more feet below where the road had been. Given the large areas of reclaimed land over former tide flats and gullies in Seattle - that are prone to liquefaction - you should expect to see a lot of this. You will (in all likelihood) survive it (without injury), so what are you going to do about it?

Liquifaction creates impacts that are not limited to roadway infrastructure - these seismically "safe" apartments in Japan did not collapse - they just fell over like boxes. That's what liquefaction will do to even the most earthquake-hardened structures. Survivable, yes. But don't expect to call it home ever again. And if you can't get the natural gas turned off right away, it might just go up in flames with the rest of your neighborhood.

In Southern California 1971, large sections of the freeway system came down - no liquefaction here - just pure, horrendous pounding caused by the earthquake itself near where faultline lies. Seattle has a program to do "seismic retrofit" of bridges - but the experts, when pressed - admit that this work will protect only against collapse from moderate earthquake. In other words, the bridges might not collapse now, but they will be damaged beyond repair - and will be out of use.

In Alaska 1964, ground faults tossed around modern one story structures like this school. Note that the structures did not collapse for the most part - so even destruction like this was largely survivable. Incredible.

Lighter wood frame buildings do very well in earthquakes - even though the building was not useable in the future, it protected its occupants from death or major injury. Just ride that thing out under a table - and when its over - get the gas shut off! Then leave, because that house is not safe to be inside.

Alaska 1964, the single largest earthquake sustained by Americans in modern times. You should know this: the vast majority of people subjected to earthquakes as enormous as this will survive, and most of them will be unhurt. But they will not be able to get around normally for weeks to come. And electricity, gas and water will be cut off for many days, even many weeks. People need to be prepared for survival when this happens. And it will happen.


So what do we do about it? Here along the West Coast, and in fact, many places in North America - the risk of major earthquakes is very real. As I have watched the U.S. military respond to the hurricane disasters along the Gulf Coast, it has been impressive to watch our troops utilize the equipment and techniques required for mobility in the rough terrain of Iraq and Afghanistan. While the news coverage focuses on helicopters - the GI's also make extensive use of more low-tech equipment to get around, like dual-purpose (street and trail) motorcycles. The soldier above is on a modified diesel-powered (for safety, convenience in carrying only one type of fuel, and superior operation in wet conditons) Kawaski KLR.

Then, while reseaching this topic - thanks to the Northwest Motorcycle Association I found this organization in Venezuela - the Milenium Grupo Tactico Motorizado Asociacion Civil, or Milenium G.T.M. as they call themselves - which began as a group of riders who spontaneously responded to a mass casualty disaster to evacuate 10,000 people from a destroyed and inaccessible area in 36 hours...

Crossing terrain made impassable to larger vehicles...

They reunited families by getting children home from school...

And even while they were taking care of children, they transported over 8 tons of food, water and medicine on the return trips. In the years since, they have continued to train and ride - and are national heroes. Which is something they appreciate and all, no doubt. But knowing guys who ride motorcycles, they really just want to ride, not sit around and feel like heroes.

(photo credit: www.dualsport.info)

In the Pacific Northwest we have a no less committed and (as pictured above) audacious group of riders. This part of the world has somehow attracted people who like to get together and ride their motorcycles up (and down) ANYTHING. Check out the guys in that picture, if anyone can, they are going to get through after The Big One. And the dual sport motorcycle enthusiasts of Washington and Oregon may well have their opportunity for glory when The Big One hits. When that happens, our fire crews and other first responders will be overwhelmed. No one will call when you dial 911, because they will be busy with ten thousand people dealing with the same exact thing you are dealing. And besides, the phone system will have crashed. So if you are really in trouble, you had better hope for a passing Amateur Radio Operator from Seattle ACS.

And our politicians, you can be sure, will be pointing fingers. And won't know what the hell to do, but that won't keep them from saying...

Our citizens will be trapped at work, or at home, and unable to use their phones or cars. They will face the daunting challenge of walking home, and for some people making even typical freeway commutes right now, that will take days. We will have refugees and evacuees by the tens of thousands.

Our elderly will need their medicines, and our children will need to be reunited with their parents. Looting will happen, just as there will be incredible acts of heroism. But one thing you can count on, long before FEMA or the military shows up with helicopters and bureaucrats, is that these northwest offroad motorcycle riders will be getting through. Take one more look at the photos above: the comfortable bubbles of home, car and office will be GONE when that earthquake strikes here.

Still can't get your brain around that, can you? Maybe you should read this, and get going on some action. Or maybe this, on how an earthquake will mess with your mind FOREVER if you aren't prepared to "deal" when it happens. Capiche, for gawdssake. Maybe put some water bottles and hiking shoes in your trunk, for starters. It may take those folks on dual sport motorcycles a while to find you - so it wouldn't hurt to be a little prepared, right?

Right.

(P. Scott Cummins is a dual sport motorcycle rider and amateur radio operator - and volunteer First Responder. Yeah, yeah - and an Eagle Scout. Cummins is part of a small group that organized over fifty volunteer disaster response teams in his zip code comprising the Magnolia district of Seattle. But even after all of that preparation, he knows that what communities really need is disaster chaplain training like what's happening with the City of Redmond - because people will need "ministering" after a major earthquake like they have never needed it before. So send this blog link to your Pastor/Rabbi. Shalom and get going already! Because all that you accomplish today for preparedness is all you will have - because tomorrow you will be too busy and won't think about it. Until...)