Why it is time to wake up about earthquakes

Here are several archive photos of earthquake damage - mainly from the Alaska 1964 and San Andreas/Southern California 1971 earthquakes. They clearly depict the kind of damage Seattle (and other cities in the northwest) should expect from a major seismic event along any number of fault lines in this region - particularly given the kind of soils and fill work done early in Seattle's development - making large parts of this city particularly prone to major subsidence due to "liquifaction" and landslide along the many steep hills throughout the city (for more on that, see this excellent article by Jorgen Johansson from the University of Washington Department of Civil Engineering. And this website run by Richard Caulkins at the Department of Civil Engineering at Cal Poly Pomona) .

If you live in Seattle like I do, all I can say is... we are in for a "world of hurt" in this town , and it is long past time that the politicians grapple with this reality. But first, from the Loma Prieta 1989 in Oakland, some insight regarding the death and destruction to come - when earthquake causes the Alaskan Way Viaduct to collapse:


The structure "pancaked" onto the lower levels, making the task of reaching victims a logistical nightmare.

What is the City of Seattle doing to plan for that contingency on the Alaskan Way Viaduct? Since they made the decision to keep the structure up and in operation, the heightened risk of collapse by doing so would dictate that an enhanced plan for rescue and evacuation from the structure be put in place.

Otherwise, in the event of a similar earthquake as Loma Prieta 1989 (which was moderate compared to Alaska 1964), the entire Seattle Fire Department capability in the downtown area might have to focus on only one problem: the Viaduct. What will happen to the rest of downtown?

In the midst of an entire region wracked by earthquake damage, the Nimitz Freeway after Loma Prieta 1989 was a scene of horror - Seattle should expect even greater destruction, because the Alaskan Way Viaduct was built almost entirely on fill next to the shoreline - subsidence due to soil liquefaction could completely collapse both surface and elevated road infrastructure - even while the highly-compromised adjacent seawall floods out the entire lower downtown.

Think of New Orleans 2005: in a matter of hours after a severe earthquake in Seattle, the lower downtown area could, geologically-speaking, revert back to its pre-1890's condition from the dual effects of liquefaction and collapse of the seawall - subjecting the fill there to unprotected tidal impacts.

This is Anchorage 1964 - liquifaction and faultline cracks destroyed large tracts of the downtown. Some modern buildings, like the Westward Hilton in the background above, faired well - all things considered. But getting in and out of the Hilton by vehicle was still impossible.

Because roadways were impassable for vehicle traffic in many areas. Huge holes and cracks opened up all over the region - making roads useless.

The ground rose and fell - undulating for almost nine minutes. Rising and falling like the waves in an ocean storm - ten feet up followed by ten feet down - finally leaving most of the city in a heap. Liquefaction caused soil to, quite literally, collapse - as seen here.

It is important to remember that even minor earthquakes can completely cut off roadways, making it impossible for cars to get around. This faultline crack was from Nisqually 2001.

In the Great Alaska Earthquake, some cars ended up ten or more feet below where the road had been. Given the large areas of reclaimed land over former tide flats and gullies in Seattle - that are prone to liquefaction - you should expect to see a lot of this. You will (in all likelihood) survive it (without injury), so what are you going to do about it?

Liquifaction creates impacts that are not limited to roadway infrastructure - these seismically "safe" apartments in Japan did not collapse - they just fell over like boxes. That's what liquefaction will do to even the most earthquake-hardened structures. Survivable, yes. But don't expect to call it home ever again. And if you can't get the natural gas turned off right away, it might just go up in flames with the rest of your neighborhood.

In Southern California 1971, large sections of the freeway system came down - no liquefaction here - just pure, horrendous pounding caused by the earthquake itself near where faultline lies. Seattle has a program to do "seismic retrofit" of bridges - but the experts, when pressed - admit that this work will protect only against collapse from moderate earthquake. In other words, the bridges might not collapse now, but they will be damaged beyond repair - and will be out of use.

In Alaska 1964, ground faults tossed around modern one story structures like this school. Note that the structures did not collapse for the most part - so even destruction like this was largely survivable. Incredible.

Lighter wood frame buildings do very well in earthquakes - even though the building was not useable in the future, it protected its occupants from death or major injury. Just ride that thing out under a table - and when its over - get the gas shut off! Then leave, because that house is not safe to be inside.

Alaska 1964, the single largest earthquake sustained by Americans in modern times. You should know this: the vast majority of people subjected to earthquakes as enormous as this will survive, and most of them will be unhurt. But they will not be able to get around normally for weeks to come. And electricity, gas and water will be cut off for many days, even many weeks. People need to be prepared for survival when this happens. And it will happen.


So what do we do about it? Here along the West Coast, and in fact, many places in North America - the risk of major earthquakes is very real. As I have watched the U.S. military respond to the hurricane disasters along the Gulf Coast, it has been impressive to watch our troops utilize the equipment and techniques required for mobility in the rough terrain of Iraq and Afghanistan. While the news coverage focuses on helicopters - the GI's also make extensive use of more low-tech equipment to get around, like dual-purpose (street and trail) motorcycles. The soldier above is on a modified diesel-powered (for safety, convenience in carrying only one type of fuel, and superior operation in wet conditons) Kawaski KLR.

Then, while reseaching this topic - thanks to the Northwest Motorcycle Association I found this organization in Venezuela - the Milenium Grupo Tactico Motorizado Asociacion Civil, or Milenium G.T.M. as they call themselves - which began as a group of riders who spontaneously responded to a mass casualty disaster to evacuate 10,000 people from a destroyed and inaccessible area in 36 hours...

Crossing terrain made impassable to larger vehicles...

They reunited families by getting children home from school...

And even while they were taking care of children, they transported over 8 tons of food, water and medicine on the return trips. In the years since, they have continued to train and ride - and are national heroes. Which is something they appreciate and all, no doubt. But knowing guys who ride motorcycles, they really just want to ride, not sit around and feel like heroes.

(photo credit: www.dualsport.info)

In the Pacific Northwest we have a no less committed and (as pictured above) audacious group of riders. This part of the world has somehow attracted people who like to get together and ride their motorcycles up (and down) ANYTHING. Check out the guys in that picture, if anyone can, they are going to get through after The Big One. And the dual sport motorcycle enthusiasts of Washington and Oregon may well have their opportunity for glory when The Big One hits. When that happens, our fire crews and other first responders will be overwhelmed. No one will call when you dial 911, because they will be busy with ten thousand people dealing with the same exact thing you are dealing. And besides, the phone system will have crashed. So if you are really in trouble, you had better hope for a passing Amateur Radio Operator from Seattle ACS.

And our politicians, you can be sure, will be pointing fingers. And won't know what the hell to do, but that won't keep them from saying...

Our citizens will be trapped at work, or at home, and unable to use their phones or cars. They will face the daunting challenge of walking home, and for some people making even typical freeway commutes right now, that will take days. We will have refugees and evacuees by the tens of thousands.

Our elderly will need their medicines, and our children will need to be reunited with their parents. Looting will happen, just as there will be incredible acts of heroism. But one thing you can count on, long before FEMA or the military shows up with helicopters and bureaucrats, is that these northwest offroad motorcycle riders will be getting through. Take one more look at the photos above: the comfortable bubbles of home, car and office will be GONE when that earthquake strikes here.

Still can't get your brain around that, can you? Maybe you should read this, and get going on some action. Or maybe this, on how an earthquake will mess with your mind FOREVER if you aren't prepared to "deal" when it happens. Capiche, for gawdssake. Maybe put some water bottles and hiking shoes in your trunk, for starters. It may take those folks on dual sport motorcycles a while to find you - so it wouldn't hurt to be a little prepared, right?

Right.

(P. Scott Cummins is a dual sport motorcycle rider and amateur radio operator - and volunteer First Responder. Yeah, yeah - and an Eagle Scout. Cummins is part of a small group that organized over fifty volunteer disaster response teams in his zip code comprising the Magnolia district of Seattle. But even after all of that preparation, he knows that what communities really need is disaster chaplain training like what's happening with the City of Redmond - because people will need "ministering" after a major earthquake like they have never needed it before. So send this blog link to your Pastor/Rabbi. Shalom and get going already! Because all that you accomplish today for preparedness is all you will have - because tomorrow you will be too busy and won't think about it. Until...)

U.S. To Deny Aid to Five Countries Under Anti-Trafficking Act

And you thought that Sudan was the only country with a slavery problem. It's not just Africa.

From the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of International Information Programs:

Burma, Cambodia, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela still allow human trafficking

By Jane Morse Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- The White House has determined Burma, Cambodia, Cuba, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Venezuela should be sanctioned under the Trafficking Victims Protection Act (TVPA) of 2000.

In a memorandum to the secretary of state, President Bush directed that the United States deny assistance -- ranging from participation in educational and cultural exchange programs to certain nonhumanitarian, nontrade-related funding -- to these five countries until their governments comply with the act's minimum standards to combat trafficking or make significant efforts to do so.

The TVPA, enacted on October 28, 2000, is the most comprehensive U.S. law to address the various aspects of trafficking in persons both internationally and domestically. It establishes measures to prevent trafficking, protect its victims and prosecute those accountable for trafficking.

The United States has condemned human trafficking as a form of slavery and an affront to the principles of human dignity and liberty. In remarks to the National Training Conference on Human Trafficking in July 2004, Bush said: "Human life is the gift of our Creator -- and it should never be for sale." (See related article.)

Experts estimate up to 800,000 people are trafficked across international borders every year. The United States government is at the forefront in battling this scourge. In 2004 alone, the United States provided more than $96 million in foreign aid to help other countries strengthen their anti-trafficking efforts via tougher legislation, special law enforcement units and emergency shelter and rehabilitation programs.

Each year, the U.S. Department of State evaluates foreign governments on their efforts to fight human trafficking and produces a report based on information from American diplomats as well as nongovernmental organizations and other groups. The report covering the year 2004, released in June 2005, examined 150 nations. (See related article.)

Countries are divided into three groups, or tiers. Tier One means that a country fully meets the requirements of the TVPA. Tier Two countries do not meet the standards fully, but are working to improve. Tier Three countries face possible restrictions in American aid or other measures.

For 2005, the United States identified 14 Tier Three countries: Bolivia, Burma, Cambodia, Cuba, Ecuador, Jamaica, Kuwait, North Korea, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Togo, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

According to the White House memorandum to the secretary of state, six of the 14 Tier Three countries since have taken actions that averted the need for the president to make a determination regarding sanctions and waivers: Bolivia, Jamaica, Qatar, Sudan, Togo and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have been placed on the "Special Watch List" and will be re-evaluated in six months.

Ecuador, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are also on the Tier Three list for not complying with the TVPA's minimum standards, but they have received presidential waivers for sanctions "in the national interest of the United States." Those countries will be reassessed within six months.
For additional information, see Human Trafficking.

The Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 (PDF format, 86 pages), the Trafficking in Persons Report released in June 2005, and the Presidential Determination with Respect to Foreign Governments' Efforts Regarding Trafficking in Persons are available on the State Department's Web site.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov )

Urbane Analysis: Check out iAbolish.com and get involved - we need more Abolitionists. They all went away after 1865, but now we need them back again. Lots of them, and... like, yesterday.

You'd be good at it - if you gave it a try, is what I'm thinking.

The twin evils of Slavery and Corruption cannot stand up to the power of the web, digital video, and Excel (for more on that, click here). You have your mouse hand on the most powerful weapon ever invented, why not use it?

And while you do, keep me in the loop, okay partner? You look like a hero to me.

“Kiss my ear!” Tom Delay & Associates are NOT Compassionate Conservatives

But we already knew THAT, from Instapundit:

PORK UPDATE:

Today Alabama Senator Richard Shelby (Republican) said he would be willing to give up some of his allocated Federal monies for pork projects in his state to help fund recovery efforts from Hurricane Katrina. Which raises the question whether California Congressman Adam Schiff (Democrat-29th District) would be willing to shift funds as well?

Nancy Pelosi is!

House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco said Tuesday she was willing to return to the federal Treasury $70 million designated for San Francisco projects in the new highway and transportation bill and use the money to help pay for Hurricane Katrina recovery efforts.

But Tom Delay (same story) isn't:

Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, said that while he would consider cutting all other domestic discretionary spending to raise the tens of billions of dollars needed for Katrina relief, it was a bad idea to take money from transportation projects.

His suburban Houston district is slated to get $64.4 million under the bill, and DeLay has said that he brought home an additional $50 million for freeway projects in the metropolitan area. He also helped secure $324 million in funding credits for Houston's light rail construction.

Neither is Alaska Rep. Don "bridge to nowhere" Young:

“Kiss my ear!” Rep. Don Young, an Alaska Republican, told a Fairbanks newspaper reporter when asked whether he would return the $223 million he “earmarked” for a bridge so that residents of Ketchikan won’t have to pay $6 to ride a ferry to get to the airport. Young is chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

You can't make a silk purse out of a pig's ear, I guess.

But Rep. Mike Pence is looking like the hero of this story so far:

Indiana Congressman Mike Pence is leading a call for cuts in the federal budget that would match the spending for hurricane relief. "Operation Offset" is the name of the effort.
The details were made public on Capitol Hill Wednesday morning. The 23 pages of proposed cuts in the federal budget come from 110 members of Congress who belong to the Conservative Republican Study Committee chaired by Mike Pence.
Bring it on! But if people aren't willing to support cuts in their own districts, they're not going to be taken seriously.

UPDATE: Pelosi backpedals:

But by the afternoon she had backtracked, saying she wouldn't give up all of the $128.6 million going to her district. She said the $58.8 million slated to retrofit the Golden Gate Bridge to protect it from earthquakes is a safety issue too important to forgo.

That might be a fair cop, actually, though it looks bad. Still, her colleagues need to be stepping up. And perhaps she can find some other pork to take its place, if she looks hard . . . .

ANOTHER UPDATE: John McCain wants to ditch the hugely expensive prescription drug benefit: "'We’ve got to go back and look at the Medicare prescription drug bill. It was supposed to cost $400 billion. It’s now up to $700 billion.' McCain added, 'It was a bad idea to start with.'" Follow the link for an alternative proposal.

From a Compassionate Conservative

"What They Are Saying: Presidential Address on Katrina" (to be hereafter known as "The Speech") care of the Washington State Republican Party...

"Evacuees At A Shelter [In Louisiana] Said They Took Comfort Thursday Night From Both The Substance And The Symbolism Of The Speech President Bush Gave In The City Many Of Them Had Fled." (Susan Saulny, "Evacuees Find Comfort And Encouragement In Speech," The New York Times, 9/16/05)

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA): "Innovative And Bold." ("Reaction To Bush's New Orleans Address," The Associated Press, 9/15/05)

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D-LA): "...Give [The President] Very High Marks ..." (NPR's "Special Coverage," 9/15/05)

Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard: "It Was Compassionate. It Was Specific About Relief, It Gave Hope. This Is What We Need More Than Anything Right Now, Is Hope ... I Was Glad To Hear It. Thank You, Mr. President." (ABC's "ABC News Special Report," 9/15/05)

Talk Show Host Hugh Hewitt: "Perfect Pitch Returned Tonight, And The President's Looks Backward And Forward Were On Target." (Hugh Hewitt Website, "A Good Speech By A Good Man", hughhewitt.com, 9/15/05)

Former Clinton Advisor And Pundit David Gergen: "[A] Strong, Confident Speech, And I Do Think It Will Give Reassurance To The People Of The Gulf Region ..." (CNN's "Larry King Live," 9/15/05)

The New York Times: "A Speech That Will Reassure Many Americans That He Understands The Enormity Of The Event And The Demands Of Leadership To Come." (Editorial, "Mr. Bush In New Orleans," The New York Times, 9/15/05)

Former Clinton Advisor Dick Morris: "Fantastic ... [A] Seminal Moment In Our History And I Think Bush Rose To The Occasion Magnificently." (Fox News' "Hannity & Colmes," 9/15/05)

The New York Times Columnist David Brooks: "Excellent." (PBS' "NewsHour," 9/15/05)

Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD): "[I] Never Thought I Would Be Defending The President - But I Think What He's Trying To Put Forth Is A Plan To Resurrect A City And To Resurrect The Gulf Coast And Communities That Have Been Basically Destroyed And People Left With Nothing ... He Gave The American People The A-Plus They Deserved. ... Excellent Proposals ..." (MSNBC's "Presidential Address," 9/15/05)

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "All Good... I Like The Fact That He's Talking About Creating Tax Incentives For Businesses To Relocate; Training Accounts For Workers; Schooling For Kids; Homesteading..." (NPR's "Special Coverage," 9/15/05)

Melissa Block, NPR's "Special Coverage," Host: "Sounds Like, By And Large, You're Supporting The President's Proposals..." Durbin: "Yeah." (NPR's "Special Coverage," 9/15/05)

ABC's Ted Koppel In Response To A Focus Group: "If The National Response Is Reflected By That Small Group Of People In The Parking Lot Of The Astrodome, The President Has Made Some Major Progress Tonight." (ABC's "Nightline," 9/15/05)

The Washington Post's Charles Krauthammer: "[The President] Showed His Seriousness, Soberness, Ambition. He Wants To Rebuild And Make It Better. ... He Did A Good Job. ... He Did What He Had To Do And He Did It Well ... He's Setting A Very High Bar." (Fox News' "Special Report," 9/15/05)

Power Line Blog: "[A]t His Best ..." (Power Line Blog, www.powerlineblog.com, Accessed 9/16/05)

Los Angeles Times: "Impressive Array Of Initiatives Undertaken To Help Evacuees." (Editorial, "Bush's Rescue Mission," Los Angeles Times, 9/16/05)

Time's Jay Carney: "Effective And Pretty Powerful ... Novel Ideas ... The Most Creative Was The Urban Homesteading Act, Which Is A Really Creative Way I Think Towards Giving Home Ownership To Poor People." (CNN's "Larry King Live," 9/15/05)

The Boston Globe's Nina Easton: "[The President] Addressed The Racial Issue And ... Did So Well." (Fox News' "Special Report," 9/15/05)

The Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol: "[A] Pretty Compelling, I Thought, Compassionate Conservative Agenda." (Fox News' "Fox & Friends," 9/16/05)

Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC): "Will Go A Long Ways ..." (PBS' "Charlie Rose," 9/15/05)

Former Speaker Of The House Newt Gingrich: "A Very Solid Speech...Did A Very Solid Job Of Communicating The Concept Of The 'Gulf Opportunity Zone,' The Concept Of Urban Homesteading ..." (Fox News' "On The Record," 9/15/05)

Urbane Analysis: "He speaks for all of us. Let's get to work and get this thing done. Or, as George W. Bush might say, git 'er dun!"

Diane in Afghanistan

Diane Tebelius, the erstwhile tax attorney who was part of Dino Rossi's litigation team (for a quick recap on Tebelius and Bellevue politics, check out the Seattle Times here), is now blogging from Kabul, Afghanistan - when she gets there - she left yesterday. Diane in Afghanistan is going to be one of my frequent reads, check it out here. As Diane works hard as an election observer in Afghanistan, I will personally wish her better luck in obtaining greater justice and truer democracy for the Afghan people than all of us were afforded here in Washington! Remember, the fate of the د افغانستان اسلامي دولت دولت اسلامی افغانستان (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) rests on your shoulders! And be sure to write in that blog of yours often, okay? We're worried about you!

(Hat tip to Washington College Republican leader Patrick Bell, much obliged PB!)

John Garang and the dream of peace in southern Sudan

The late John Garang: his dream of peace in the southern Sudan continues

Staying the course in Sudan
John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen

THE death of John Garang in a helicopter crash on the Sudan-Uganda border recently sent shock- waves throughout Sudan and the region. His passing occurred during a pivotal time in Sudan’s history. After signing a peace agreement in January to end Africa’s longest civil war, the longtime leader of the former rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement was sworn in as the first vice-president in the new government of national unity just three weeks before the crash.
His death came as his movement was beginning to undertake a dramatic restructuring and while implementation of the comprehensive peace agreement is in its delicate opening stage.
The loss of Garang creates an opening for spoilers on all sides who will seek to exploit any signs of instability to undermine peace efforts. The key determinant of successful implementation of the agreement is the ability of Garang’s movement to maintain its fragile unity in the absence of the only leader it has known in its 21-year history.
The signing of the agreement at the beginning of this year was a triumph for the regional body for the Horn of Africa, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. Through three years of gruelling negotiations, chief mediator Lt-Gen Lazaro K Sumbeiywo kept the parties on track and the endgame in focus. Other external actors were crucial. The troika of the US, Britain, and Norway engaged directly with the negotiating parties and maintained constant pressure on Garang’s movement and the ruling National Congress Party to reach a deal.
Seven months after the formal signing, prospects for peace remain shaky. The primary obstacles to implementation are: a lack of political will in the north and a lack of capacity in the south.
In the north, hardline elements in the ruling clique in Khartoum remain opposed to the National Congress Party for political, ideological, and economic reasons. In the eyes of many Islamists, Garang and his calls for a secular “new Sudan” represented the largest threat to sharia law in Sudan. The recently ratified interim constitution and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s pending entrance into the government of national unity confirmed their fears that the application of sharia law would be severely diluted in the north, and completely revoked in the south.
Further, power and wealth-sharing arrangements pose a threat to elites in Khartoum, who have reaped huge profits from decades of hoarding Sudan’s assets, including its oil reserves.
Yet the National Congress Party knows that elections would remove the regime from power. Taken at face value, Khartoum’s decision to sit at the negotiating table and ultimately to sign the peace agreement was a strategic move: it consolidated its power through political partnership with Garang’s movement while deflecting mounting international pressure over Khartoum’s murderous policies in Darfur. As in Darfur, the government used ethnically based proxy militias to wreak havoc during its war with Garang’s movement. These militias poked gaping holes in Garang’s vision of a south united against the north. The negotiations called for demobilisation of the militias, but this has not begun. The National Congress Party is simply not ready to abandon military options in the south, and the continued use of militias is the most immediate threat to peace.
In the south, the lack of capacity in the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement to form an effective and inclusive administrative body that can meet the targets set forth by the agreement has always posed a challenge. Garang’s death leaves the movement in a temporary limbo; he left the movement with few strong civilian structures, and it must move forward on implementation of the agreement in an uncertain environment.
Regardless, the former rebels must make fundamental changes in the way they operate as they prepare to take up the lion’s share of positions in the government of southern Sudan. The lack of trained administrators sticks out, and the movement’s ability to fulfil the multitude of tasks it faces under the agreement will be severely tested.
Despite the challenges from both sides, increased international commitment to the process and a commitment by the movement’s leadership to vigorously pursue Garang’s legacy can keep the process on track. Initial signs from the movement are encouraging. The decision to name Salva Kiir Mayardit to replace Garang and Dr Riek Machar to serve as his deputy sent an immediate message that the process would stay on track. Further, Riek is a member of the Nuer, the largest tribe in the south after the Dinka, and elevating him to the number two position in the Dinka-dominated movement is an olive branch to armed Nuer militia who remain suspicious of the movement following violent internecine clashes in the mid-1990s.
The movement’s first steps without its leader have been in the right direction, and the international community needs to keep pushing both sides to meet its commitments.
The violence that broke out in Khartoum and some towns in the south following the announcement of Garang’s death could easily have spiralled out of control, and some evidence points to political manipulation by hardliners in Khartoum to incite northerners to attack southerners living among them. Key external actors must make it clear to Khartoum that any manipulation of the situation to promote the continuation of violence, including through support to the renegade southern militias, will be strongly opposed.
Security in southern Sudan remains a priority, and the United Nations mission to Sudan must accelerate the deployment of peacekeepers to meet their deadlines. These forces should immediately focus on possible sources of violence and ensure that they are not being exploited by the spoilers in Khartoum.
Donors must increase their presence in southern Sudan, especially in Rumbek and Juba, to work closely with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement to build the institutional capacity of the government of southern Sudan. The primary focus should be on the establishment of transparent budgetary mechanisms for the management and disbursal of oil revenues, and on efforts to demobilise the oilfield militias. Additionally, donor nations must ensure that all promised reconstruction assistance is disbursed in a rapid and transparent way to begin to demonstrate the tangible benefits of a peace dividend in the south.
Sudan has been one of Africa’s great tragedies since the independence movements of the 1960s, and with the continuing horror story of Darfur, the problems continue. Garang’s legacy, the peace agreement, represents a vision of the future for millions of destitute Sudanese. Garang’s death is undoubtedly a blow, and increased international engagement and vigilance is vital to keeping his dream of a just peace alive.
‖Prendergast and Thomas-Jensen work for the International Crisis Group www.crisisgroup.com, a conflict prevention organisation in Brussels.

Urbane Analysis: I have this dream, that talented people like Kanye West...

develop more interest in working on behalf of justice for people being held in slavery (yes, slavery) in places like Sudan - and leave behind the feel-good liberal blame-game victim-identity politics of their parents.

But hey, it's only a dream. Meet you in Khartoum, Kanye...

Leadership for Louisiana

Leadership for Louisiana... that ain't 'stuck on stupid'

Watching Lieutenant General Russell Honore' restore order in New Orleans over the last several days leads me to say - I like this guy.

And I really like how he talks:
The American people "are not stuck on stupid."
(Meaning: look forward, don't recriminate, "going political" is stupid.)

"You gotta build trust. You build trust, you got speed. And you need speed in a crisis."
(Meaning: risks will be taken, things won't be perfect, but people will pull together.)

"You guys are working off a calendar," he tells his staff. "I'm looking at my watch."
(See above.)

"That is your mission!" he thunders into a satellite phone, in a voice that could peel paint. "I am the joint-task-force commander and you are an asset. Now get the [bleep] moving!"
(Gotcha.)

He truly is, as the ineffectual New Orleans admits, the "John Wayne dude" taking charge.

The Secretary of Homeland Security steps back and lets the General take charge...

HOOAH!

Telling the Truth about New Orleans

An Unnatural Disaster: A Hurricane Exposes the Man-Made Disaster of the Welfare State

by Robert Tracinski
September 02, 2005

It took four long days for state and federal officials to figure out how to deal with the disaster in New Orleans. I can't blame them, because it also took me four long days to figure out what was going on there. The reason is that the events there make no sense if you think that we are confronting a natural disaster.
If this is just a natural disaster, the response for public officials is obvious: you bring in food, water, and doctors; you send transportation to evacuate refugees to temporary shelters; you send engineers to stop the flooding and rebuild the city's infrastructure. For journalists, natural disasters also have a familiar pattern: the heroism of ordinary people pulling together to survive; the hard work and dedication of doctors, nurses, and rescue workers; the steps being taken to clean up and rebuild.
Public officials did not expect that the first thing they would have to do is to send thousands of armed troops in armored vehicle, as if they are suppressing an enemy insurgency. And journalists—myself included—did not expect that the story would not be about rain, wind, and flooding, but about rape, murder, and looting.
But this is not a natural disaster. It is a man-made disaster.
The man-made disaster is not an inadequate or incompetent response by federal relief agencies, and it was not directly caused by Hurricane Katrina. This is where just about every newspaper and television channel has gotten the story wrong.
The man-made disaster we are now witnessing in New Orleans did not happen over four days last week. It happened over the past four decades. Hurricane Katrina merely exposed it to public view.
The man-made disaster is the welfare state.
For the past few days, I have found the news from New Orleans to be confusing. People were not behaving as you would expect them to behave in an emergency—indeed, they were not behaving as they have behaved in other emergencies. That is what has shocked so many people: they have been saying that this is not what we expect from America. In fact, it is not even what we expect from a Third World country.
When confronted with a disaster, people usually rise to the occasion. They work together to rescue people in danger, and they spontaneously organize to keep order and solve problems. This is especially true in America. We are an enterprising people, used to relying on our own initiative rather than waiting around for the government to take care of us. I have seen this a hundred times, in small examples (a small town whose main traffic light had gone out, causing ordinary citizens to get out of their cars and serve as impromptu traffic cops, directing cars through the intersection) and large ones (the spontaneous response of New Yorkers to September 11).
So what explains the chaos in New Orleans?
To give you an idea of the magnitude of what is going on, here is a description from a Washington Times story:
"Storm victims are raped and beaten; fights erupt with flying fists, knives and guns; fires are breaking out; corpses litter the streets; and police and rescue helicopters are repeatedly fired on.
"The plea from Mayor C. Ray Nagin came even as National Guardsmen poured in to restore order and stop the looting, carjackings and gunfire....
"Last night, Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco said 300 Iraq-hardened Arkansas National Guard members were inside New Orleans with shoot-to-kill orders.
" 'These troops are...under my orders to restore order in the streets,' she said. 'They have M-16s, and they are locked and loaded. These troops know how to shoot and kill and they are more than willing to do so if necessary and I expect they will.' "
The reference to Iraq is eerie. The photo that accompanies this article shows a SWAT team with rifles and armored vests riding on an armored vehicle through trash-strewn streets lined by a rabble of squalid, listless people, one of whom appears to be yelling at them. It looks exactly like a scene from Sadr City in Baghdad.
What explains bands of thugs using a natural disaster as an excuse for an orgy of looting, armed robbery, and rape? What causes unruly mobs to storm the very buses that have arrived to evacuate them, causing the drivers to speed away, frightened for their lives? What causes people to attack the doctors trying to treat patients at the Superdome?
Why are people responding to natural destruction by causing further destruction? Why are they attacking the people who are trying to help them?
My wife, Sherri, figured it out first, and she figured it out on a sense-of-life level. While watching the coverage one night on Fox News Channel, she told me that she was getting a familiar feeling. She studied architecture at the Illinois Institute of Technology, which is located in the South Side of Chicago just blocks away from the Robert Taylor Homes, one of the largest high-rise public housing projects in America. "The projects," as they were known, were infamous for uncontrollable crime and irremediable squalor. (They have since, mercifully, been demolished.)
What Sherri was getting from last night's television coverage was a whiff of the sense of life of "the projects." Then the "crawl"—the informational phrases flashed at the bottom of the screen on most news channels—gave some vital statistics to confirm this sense: 75% of the residents of New Orleans had already evacuated before the hurricane, and of those who remained, a large number were from the city's public housing projects. Jack Wakeland then told me that early reports from CNN and Fox indicated that the city had no plan for evacuating all of the prisoners in the city's jails—so they just let many of them loose. [Update: I have been searching for news reports on this last story, but I have not been able to confirm it. Instead, I have found numerous reports about the collapse of the corrupt and incompetent New Orleans Police Department; see here and here.]
There is no doubt a significant overlap between these two populations--that is, a large number of people in the jails used to live in the housing projects, and vice versa.
There were many decent, innocent people trapped in New Orleans when the deluge hit—but they were trapped alongside large numbers of people from two groups: criminals—and wards of the welfare state, people selected, over decades, for their lack of initiative and self-induced helplessness. The welfare wards were a mass of sheep—on whom the incompetent administration of New Orleans unleashed a pack of wolves.
All of this is related, incidentally, to the incompetence of the city government, which failed to plan for a total evacuation of the city, despite the knowledge that this might be necessary. In a city corrupted by the welfare state, the job of city officials is to ensure the flow of handouts to welfare recipients and patronage to political supporters—not to ensure a lawful, orderly evacuation in case of emergency.
No one has really reported this story, as far as I can tell. In fact, some are already actively distorting it, blaming President Bush, for example, for failing to personally ensure that the Mayor of New Orleans had drafted an adequate evacuation plan. The worst example is an execrable piece from the Toronto Globe and Mail, by a supercilious Canadian who blames the chaos on American "individualism." But the truth is precisely the opposite: the chaos was caused by a system that was the exact opposite of individualism.
What Hurricane Katrina exposed was the psychological consequences of the welfare state. What we consider "normal" behavior in an emergency is behavior that is normal for people who have values and take the responsibility to pursue and protect them. People with values respond to a disaster by fighting against it and doing whatever it takes to overcome the difficulties they face. They don't sit around and complain that the government hasn't taken care of them. And they don't use the chaos of a disaster as an opportunity to prey on their fellow men.
But what about criminals and welfare parasites? Do they worry about saving their houses and property? They don't, because they don't own anything. Do they worry about what is going to happen to their businesses or how they are going to make a living? They never worried about those things before. Do they worry about crime and looting? But living off of stolen wealth is a way of life for them.
People living in piles of their own trash, while petulantly complaining that other people aren't doing enough to take care of them and then shooting at those who come to rescue them—this is not just a description of the chaos at the Superdome. It is a perfect summary of the 40-year history of the welfare state and its public housing projects.
The welfare state—and the brutish, uncivilized mentality it sustains and encourages—is the man-made disaster that explains the moral ugliness that has swamped New Orleans. And that is the story that no one is reporting.

Source: TIA Daily -- September 2, 2005

Urbane Analysis: Facts are stubborn things, and those are the facts.

Understanding the Liberal Mindset

Want to understand the true nature of the liberal mindset?

Read this post from "DemGurl" at Democratic Underground. Then read the comments. Now you know.

(Thanks to The Diesel Shack for getting the word out about this...)

Mars Hill: Kicking Up the Dust with the Sign of the Fish

Monday, August 29, 2005
At Mars Hill Church, purple hair is OK, but 'dogging it' at work isn't

By JOHN IWASAKI SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

Kate Justus recently professed her faith in a public way, getting dunked at sunset by pastors in wet suits as part of a mass baptism organized by Mars Hill Church.
The 22-year-old heard about the Ballard congregation through a friend who initially considered it "a really weird place," before telling her this: "It is actually very cool. They are OK with drinking as long as you don't get drunk, they are OK with dancing, and they really like sex as long as you are married."

Niki Desautels / P-I

Erin and Todd Robertson embrace during a song at the Mars Hill Church on Sunday. The Robertsons have been attending Mars Hill for more than four years. Music worship isn't always sedate. Church bands have a variety of styles: emo, rockabilly, low-key piano, traditional rock and acoustic.

Mars Hill, a hotbed of twentysomethings searching for God and meaning in life, started with a dozen people in a Bible study group almost a decade ago. Attendance is now nearing 4,000, triple the number in 2003, with people coming from as far as Everett and Redmond. At its current annual growth rate, Mars Hill projects attendance to reach 10,000 by the end of the decade, if not sooner.

Its growth would be remarkable for a church anywhere, but is especially notable in an "unchurched" city like Seattle, smack in the "None Zone." More people in the Northwest say "none" when asked their religious affiliation than in any other region in the country, researchers have reported.

The church is renovating its 40,000-square-foot building and recently bought a similar-sized facility a block away, with plans to use both sites for services by late 2006. The two buildings encompass the first two phases of Mars Hills' growth plans.

"Phase three," pastor Mark Driscoll quipped, "is world domination."

Verse-by-verse teaching, punkish-indie and eclectic music, art exhibits, a coffee bar, cool aesthetics and a subtly lit, high-tech sanctuary are features that distinguish the church. The name refers to a hill in Athens, the center of enlightenment in the ancient world, where the New Testament says the Apostle Paul spoke to the intellectuals of his day.

"It's very Seattle," Kari Laurvick, 26, said after the first of four services Sunday. "It very much adopts the culture of Seattle."

But it's Driscoll, 34, who most strongly sets Mars Hill apart.

"I don't leave a lot of things open-ended theologically," Driscoll said. "I believe there's one God. I believe that Jesus is the only way to heaven. I believe we're all sinners. I believe in a real hell and a real heaven. So I'm a Bible guy, for sure. I don't make any apologies about that."
His theologically conservative teaching is delivered in a rapid-fire mix of scripture -- paraphrased to make ancient texts more accessible -- humor and contemporary application.
For all of Mars Hill's hip appeal, Driscoll "won't budge on biblical issues," said Jodie Wisniew, 27, a member from the beginning. "He doesn't say (you're wrong) if you dress a certain way, have tattoos or purple hair; that's not a biblical issue."

Driscoll talked Sunday about the life of Joseph, the Hebrew slave who rose to a powerful position and saved Egypt from famine. Modern society tends to equate the rich with evil and the poor with virtue, thinking "it's good because we've stuck it to 'The Man' and gave it to the other man," he said.

Niki Desautels / P-I


Keisha Brown cools down lunch for her daughter Malia Brown, 13 months, in the designated Cry Room behind the main auditorium of the Mars Hill Church in Ballard on Sunday.

But Joseph's leadership shows it's not that simple, Driscoll said, teaching that the real issues regarding income and job are righteousness and unrighteousness. Don't be "dogging it on Fridays," he said. "Don't steal. Don't cheat. Be good representatives of Jesus in the workplace."
By engaging the culture, the church has drawn in artists, musicians, high-tech employees, restaurant workers, college students and others. It also is attracting affluent empty-nesters who are moving into expensive downtown Seattle condominiums. It is those people who are "floating the boat" financially for Mars Hill, Driscoll said.

Mike Urban / P-I


Mars Hill pastor Steve Tompkins, left, with the help of pastor Bent Meyer, baptizes his son Sam Tompkins, 9, in the chilly water at Golden Gardens Park.
On Aug. 23 at Golden Gardens Park, pastors in wet suits baptized 57 people following a barbecue attended by several hundred people.
Tisha Sandhop, 31, was baptized with her husband, Marty, also 31. She said the attraction to Mars Hill is simple: "The focus is on Jesus and the Bible."

That, more than the outreach to a young adult audience, explains the church's demographics, said Jeff Keuss, associate professor of Christian ministry at Seattle Pacific University.
"Mars Hills says, 'That's what the Bible says, and that settles it.' It's appealing to a younger age group that wants boundaries," he said. "The challenge for Mars Hill in the future is retaining those young people when they're 40 and 50 years old.

"Usually, when you hit a point of crisis -- you divorce, you lose a child to cancer -- all of a sudden, the certainty of 'yes' and 'no' becomes quite complex. You're willing to move to churches that are larger than 'yes' and 'no.'"

Driscoll said that conclusion ignores the reality of Mars Hill: "Just because people are young doesn't mean they haven't been through hard times."

The church offers recovery groups for younger people who have been sexually abused or addicted to drugs and alcohol. Some attendees have been abandoned by their parents.
"Joseph comes from a broken, confused home," he said in a sermon. "It may look messed up like your family."

Mars Hill is considered by some to be an "emerging" church, a movement various defined as a protest against institutional Christianity, a desire to be more culturally relevant and a way to live the Christian faith with greater authenticity.

Members can participate in one of dozens of "community groups" that meet weekly to share food and fellowship.

The church's performance space -- The Paradox -- has been a venue for all-ages concerts for years, mostly for secular bands.

Church worship bands are largely composed of professional musicians who have a variety of styles: emo (Team Strike Force), rockabilly (The Mars Hillbillies), low-key piano (The BCG), traditional rock (The Parsons) and acoustic.

Older church members are offered earplugs for the high-volume worship music. At the other end of the age spectrum, the church averages two weddings and three births per week.
"When my 55-year-old folks were all excited -- and my 13-year-old child -- I knew it was different," said Jen Thomas, 34.

Driscoll said he received his calling to ministry while praying during a Christian retreat in 1990. Mars Hill, which has never done marketing, rented other churches' buildings in different downtown or North Seattle neighborhoods for years before moving to Ballard.

The church's Internet site www.marshillchurch.org with its free downloads of worship music and sermons -- Driscoll's messages were accessed more than 1 million times last year -- is designed to make Mars Hill appeal to tech-savvy visitors. The site has "doctrinal commitments, for sure, but the traditional faith seems approached in a more open, hip, creative, searching way. Even the (wavy neon) graphic on their Web site ... suggests edgy," said Christian Smith, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, who has studied the spiritual lives of teenagers.

The church has lost some members who have found Driscoll's teachings too limiting when it comes to women, however. Only men are pastors at Mars Hill, a position Driscoll defended in a 2003 campus debate with Robert Wall, professor of Christian scriptures at Seattle Pacific University. Both men based their arguments on different interpretations of scripture.

"Women lead worship, women teach, women baptize, women serve Communion, women get paid to be in ministry," Driscoll said. "We have hundreds of women from SPU who are leaders in our church."

Wall said it would be "a mistake to characterize (Driscoll's) position as one opposed to women in ministry. It's opposition to women in the leadership role of pastor or elder of a congregation. It's more of a political issue than a spiritual one."

He said his differences with Driscoll should not obscure what is of greater significance.
"The life of Mars Hill is more complicated than what some outside are saying," he said.
"Relationships are happening there. People are finding God in that congregation. Mark speaks with great humor and is a winsome, charismatic person. But at the root, what he says makes sense to people. He gives them a vision for how to live their lives. At the end of the day, one has to admire what is happening there."

P-I reporter John Iwasaki can be reached at 206-448-8096 or johniwasaki@seattlepi.com.

Then came this "Letter to the Editor" in response on the P-I's op/ed pages a few days later:

Fawning piece has no place on the front page It's highly inappropriate for a daily newspaper to publish a front-page article on a church. This is especially true when there isn't any real news to report about the church. Monday's fawning piece on the Mars Hill Church was essentially a promotional vehicle for this congregation and its fundamentalist theology.
The Mars Hill Church is not a big story. Like most growing fundamentalist churches, Mars Hill's leaders extract small segments of the Bible and interpret those with their own ultra right-wing spin. A perfect example is their minister's emphasis on chastising the poor and exalting the rich. Anyone who has actually read the first four books of the New Testament would see how Jesus said exactly the opposite on such matters.
The P-I shouldn't be giving this or any church free publicity, particularly when its agenda is clearly more about politics than religion. -Steve Nesich Seattle

Urbane Analysis: Since this article has been "archived" at the P-I and is no longer freely accessible, it was appropriate to keep it "out there" via this blog. Here's my take: The "Letter to the Editor" is quintessentially Seattle-on-religion: you are wrong THEREFORE you don't deserve to be seen or heard, and those that even talk about you are equally culpable. Another example of Liberal Fundamentalism - a daily fact of life in Seattle. But hey, what's your take? About Mars Hill, the thing about not allowing female pastoral leadership is their Achilles Heel, to be sure. But what Professor Jeff Keuss says is just flatly off the mark - I would give his student paper on Mars Hill a "C- "for being so blatantly speculative. Oh, that and my closing-in-on-the-BIG-Five-Oh firsthand observations from Mars Hill are 180 degrees different from the perspective of his ivory tower speculation. Mars Hill is real community, and consists of a community of believers who are WAY MORE than Christ Followers looking for a yes/no kind of on/off switch doctrine to their faith.

And that's putting it lightly. What I would like to do with Professor Keuss is attend worship there together, say three or four times - and be guests at a similar number of small group get-togethers of Mars Hill members. And then do the same thing at his church (and my church too, if he wants to). Then discuss what we saw. And pray about it, if he is up for that.

I am confident, after going through that exercise, the good professor will do an about-face on his opinion about Mars Hill. Why is that? Because when you actually get to know people at the Mars Hill community, one quickly learns that it is the focus on healing our brokenness and imperfection through reaching out to accept the love of Jesus Christ - that sets that place apart from merely "going to church" - that is the Mars Hill difference. For more on that, see a Seattle Times profile on Mark Driscoll here. I know a couple dozen members and have been there maybe ten times, and even I could figure that out! My frustration has been in getting my fellow denominationally-based Christians to come to grips with what they need to do to grapple with that reality. Most "mainstream" Christians are in comfortable denial about this, as I suspect the good professor is. Bottomline, if Mars Hill had accepted women as Pastoral Leaders and Elder-Leaders, I would have joined with them a couple years ago. And if they persist in this, sooner or later that community will lapse into conflict and schism, because that is the unfortunate reality of our human existence on this planet. And exactly why we need to reach out to our Creator, who created everything, including the Big Bang and Evolution - with loving Intelligent Design. The Creator who tells us humans to work on some stuff during our time here on earth, like loving and caring for each other as the way to get closer to our Creator. Mars Hill has got a role to play in that, to be sure. That's my take, I would appreciate hearing yours and welcome your comments.

To Those Beltway Critics of First Responders from FEMA

83 years ago the Mississippi rolled into New Orleans - but a comprehensive solution to flooding in that city was never carried out - a project so massive that the National Geographic now reports it would take 20 - 25 years to complete. New Orleans flooded again forty years later when Hurricane Betsy came ashore (the crucial difference in the casualty count between then and now? Where was enforcmement of the mandatory evacuation order by New Orleans officials - which came only after pleading by President Bush himself last weekend, days before the storm came onshore?). The insurance industry journal Risk & Insurance was reporting on the "Katrina" scenario all the way back in 2000 - and brought up (again - as I heard this discussed back in 1976 when visiting New Orleans) that it would perhaps be better (and cheaper) if the city were relocated on higher ground to the north of Lake Ponchatrain. And just like the National Geographic last year, population growth and development in the delta region (eradicating wetlands and barrier islands) and even the construction of levees themselves (causing the "protected" land to sink) are factors making the risks associated with hurricanes greater and greater every year.

You can't "Blame Bush" for that! Just ask Bill Clinton - who is getting blamed now too!

So, to all those critics - all I can say is, read your history. And then read your Bible.

Then you will call, and the LORD will answer;
you will cry for help, and he will say: Here am I.
"If you do away with the yoke of oppression,
with the pointing finger and malicious talk,
and if you spend yourselves in behalf of the hungry
and satisfy the needs of the oppressed,
then your light will rise in the darkness,
and your night will become like the noonday.
The LORD will guide you always;
he will satisfy your needs in a sun-scorched land
and will strengthen your frame.
You will be like a well-watered garden,
like a spring whose waters never fail.
Your people will rebuild the ancient ruins
and will raise up the age-old foundations;
you will be called Repairer of Broken Walls,
Restorer of Streets with Dwellings.
Isaiah 58:9-12 (NIV)

Those that wish to criticize would be advised to roll up their sleeves and help out. There will be plenty of time for talking later. For sure we should learn the lessons (and here), but petty, bitter acrimony will only hurt you in the end - not Bush - got that Kanye West? People are hurting, and need help. And Americans are responding, to get the job done. Those who want to play politics right now do so at their peril - got that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? Americans outside the Beltway want to do what's required - as quickly as possible. That is the true, enduring nature of the American people - no matter what the weather.

Old Glory: bowed but never out

Weather experts tell us other American metropolitan areas at risk of calamitous flooding include: Tampa and Miami, Florida; Galveston, Texas; Wilmington, Delaware; and Long Island, New York. The question to ask is clear: should we be spending multi-billions in each of those places to protect from flood damage - as well as in New Orleans? To put the New Orleans situation in proper perspective, all of these factors need to be part of the dialogue. And, once again, mainstream media is failing miserably in that task.

As they are in understanding why places like Florida work so well with FEMA, while Louisiana's leadership is given to clueless histrionics (and here) about their powerlessness in the face of the very scenarios they were elected to plan for with table top exercises and public education campaigns. They might want to get up to speed on this care of Ambra Nykol. By the way, it is these folks (Board of Levee Commissioners of Orleans Levee District) that the media should be hunting down regarding why the New Orleans disaster happened, and if there was any objectivity in the media - they would be doing just that. Let's be clear: it is not the federal government's responsibility to play watchdog on every city and county government agency in America. If you want to play that game, we can go back through every unfortunate occurrence during the Clinton years and place blame on him for his budgetary priorities. Sorry, but "that dog don't hunt" - and the American people know it.

Urbane Update: For you Daily Kos readers, "First Responders" are local folks all around the country - doing Emergency Management Services (EMS) work in a variety of professions - our brave police and fire department uniformed personnel, volunteer Urban Search and Rescue (SAR) teams, and amateur radio emergency service (ARES) specialists - for example. They also include folks like bus drivers, who are put to work according to well thought-out and tested plans to evacuate people from flood-prone and other disaster-ravaged areas. Because that is what local governments do, with support from state leaders - coordinated from Emergency Operations Centers (EOC).

So, what about New Orleans? Their plan is here and here - supported by their state's plans here. You can see that it is all very well thought out and complete, right down to how to evacuate the homeless and infirm. The problem is, THEY NEVER EXECUTED ON THEIR PLAN. And not even Bill Clinton could have changed that fact. So FEMA itself was thrust into the position of acting as a first responder, something the agency was never designed to do. FEMA was not designed to conduct rescues, or even be the lead agency coordinating military assistance - that is the job of local and state government leaders. But in the case of New Orleans, the federal government was forced to become first responders. The question will need to be asked (later - after rescue and recovery operations are complete, and the refugees are stabilized), WHY did the local and state response fail?

LATER we can ask: why did things break down in New Orleans, thrusting FEMA into the situation of stepping up to provide overall coordination of emergency response? That is what future investigations will determine. Right now the need is to help people and save lives. As Lee Iacocca used to say, "lead, follow or get out of the way." I respectfully suggest that the chattering classes get out of the way, because you are not helping at all. These folks are: please make a generous donation right away.

Postscript: Facts are stubborn things, and here are some more care of Jim Miller on Politics regarding the all-important timeline of events leading up to the hurricane and flooding in New Orleans:
72 Hours? Or 48 hours? Or 24 hours? The New Orleans evacuation plan assumed that the city would have 72 hours to evacuate. But if you read this detailed post from Reverend Sensing, you'll see that it was not clear until about 24 hours before Katrina hit that it would hit the city and that it would be a category 4 or 5 storm.The storm hit New Orleans Monday morning at about 8 AM, local time. Three days before, Friday morning, Katrina was hundreds of miles away, and just a category 2 storm. It was predicted to strengthen and move toward New Orleans, but as we all know, weather predictions that far out are often wrong. Still, that is when — according to the official plan — that New Orleans was supposed to begin its evacuation.Mayor Nagin actually waited until 5 PM Saturday to suggest that residents leave. And he waited until Sunday morning, just 23 hours before the storm hit, to issue an evacuation order.Reverend Sensing thinks that, at best, Mayor Nagin could have ordered an evacuation Saturday morning, that is, about 48 hours before Katrina hit. But this just shows that the 72 hour plan was unrealistic. We can not predict the course and strength of hurricanes accurately enough, 72 hours in advance, so that a 72 hour evacuation plan could work. If nothing else, there will be too much resistance from inhabitants of the threatened area, most of whom will have seen other hurricanes weaken and swerve. Mayor Nagin said that one reason he postponed even the evacuation warning was that he feared lawsuits from businesses that lost customers.So a 72 hour evacuation plan is not realistic. But a 48 hour plan might be. Many left before Mayor Nagin's Saturday evening suggestion and many more left before his Sunday morning order. Estimates I've seen are that about 80 percent of the population did get out. That suggests to me that close to 100 percent could have gotten out in 48 hours had the order been given in time and had the evacuation been handled better. For example, Louisiana has a plan for converting its highways to what they call "contraflow" so that both sides of a highway can be used for evacuations. They did not switch to this system until 4 PM on Saturday, a delay that needs explanation.Most baffling of all is the failure of Mayor Nagin to follow the city's own plan to use buses to evacuate those who did not have their own transportation. I find this decision, or non-decision, so extraordinary that I hope there is some explanation for it, other than the obvious one — gross incompetence.(I used Rich Moran's useful timeline in writing this post. I did find one error in it; he says that the contraflow was started by the city of New Orleans at noon on Sunday, but the article he links to says this:
State officials launched contraflow in the New Orleans area Saturday at 4 p.m. and announced it would end Sunday at 4 p.m. Officials said they needed to remove police directing contraflow traffic to safe locations. And I am troubled by his almost complete reliance on a single newspaper, the Times-Picayune, which was having its own problems during the storm. And has been hysterical, a word I do not use lightly, since the storm.)