Don't Count Out Dean

The R worry is that Dean’s "growing pains" have come early, way early, and that this is part of the development of a larger relationship with the electorate. It is crucial that Dean now get out the message of his Montpelier governing style - which will piss off his base, no end, because it was centrist and snuggled-up to insurance companies as well all matter of (what they perceive-to-be) corporate wretchedness. He has already shored up the base, and plenty – pick their pockets and they are committed come what will, what may. He has the money to get that message out, and can go the distance based on cash alone. Kerry, nicknamed Senator Soundbite - meaning someday, somehow, he will actually craft one (Kennedy's is "A verb, Senator, a verb" both from Doonesbury). Remember that the party belongs to Clinton LLC, a New York corporation - actually a forced partnership of the two smartest (and most poorly matched) mega-lawyers in the history of matrimony. Clinton LLC knows that the Dean Machine, with their cash on hand, can go the distance regardless of outcome in the primaries. Dean is thus in a position to play “King-maker” and threaten crucial unity/ coming-together at the convention. Dean seethes over being "outed" by Sharpton about his Vermont Gubernatorial Cabinet – in effect playing the race card. Clinton LLC knows this, and is worried. They need to hold the party together within reasonable parameters, since the Democrats are a particularly fractious bunch in ’04, which they don’t talk about openly, but telegraph amply by constant hopeful “talk up” of the same concept with regard to Republicans. A Left Winger "outed" over race could, in turn "out" the whole party over race, given the current make up of party leadership - which is particularly poor in comparison to Bush’s Cabinet. And the looming reparations debate crisis within the Democrat elite. Is Dean that angry, they wonder? Democrats treat politics like civil religion, and core values are not to be messed with. Sharpton did some messing. Gephart did some messing, and fell on his Iowa sword to take Dean down a notch in the doing. That is all, to this point. Dean will (as he is smart and driven) do much better across the north and on the “Left” coast; Edwards (Senator Happy) will do great in the south. Clark is the guy who commanded Clinton's army at Waco, and then ordered the Brits to start WWIII in that little peremptory war in Kosovo - he is a guy who, just standing there, totally puts in checks any criticism of Bush's policy in Iraq. Clark is a liability walking, and if he was he a Republican would have been indicted by the Hague. He is also Hillary’s best hope for playing “pace track rabbit” for ’08, and Clinton LLC knew that when they messed with his mind and wound him up. A big mess this year brings the party back to Clinton LLC to be "fixed" in '08. Dean is too smart to fall for that, he is going to "run right" and put it back on track in the near term – hiring consummate D.C. fat cat lobbyist and insider Roy Neel proves that he will do whatever it takes. That he so easily trashed his own principles in doing so proves Dean is blindly ambitious, and is a real slap to the jaw of his own loyal base. It will be a Dean-Edwards ticket. And now concludes this Dick Morris minute.

Why the Urbane R?

I am a great source of amusement to my many liberal friends. They, having chosen Seattle, see our city as a shining citadel of progressive ideals. No “Cafeteria Democrats” in our town, picking and choosing from what they wish. Political progressives have flocked to Seattle because they find the kind of commitment which fuels their passion: a solid determination to do and be better than the place from which they came. They came here and met me: Republican, even a staunch supporter of the party. Yet, perplexingly, at the same time liberal by any measure outside of the Seattle-Berkeley-Greenwich Village perspective. How strange. How can you, they ask while busting-up laughing, pick and choose among different issues, yet still be part of “your” movement, they wonder. Where is your passion, your commitment, if you find yourself at odds with conservative ideology regarding abortion, the environment, and corporate welfare? How can you be a Republican and know in your heart that Rush Limbaugh is a big fat idiot?

I should say that I am amusing to Democrats for three out of four years in the election cycle. This is because when the hustings begin in earnest, Democrats put their game faces on and morph into that cynical, you-are-so-ignorant laugh – a season of laughter which ends only after November - or when Democrats have exhausted all appeal options, whichever comes first. We are now in this period. I usually look forward to the e-mails inviting me to dig out invasive plants in the greenbelts. I show up so my liberal friends can rile me up - to the great amusement of patchouli-drenched, hemp-hatted post-grads who are there to help save Seattle from engulfment in English Ivy-Kudzu – with the enticement of a convenient Republican target to nail with zingers. Maybe it is the act of opening up one’s checkbook to make non-tax-deductible campaign contributions which takes away the general desire for frivolity. This year it’s even worse than any time since the Teapot Dome scandal.

Which leads to the next very important point in this earth-shattering essay: I won’t vote for a candidate who has not made his or her laughter available for analysis. Really put it out there, no lawyers involved or anything. Laughter can tell you a whole lot about a person. Mary Lou Dickerson has a really great laugh, and she’s not afraid to use it either. But let’s see, her Association of Washington Business score is 25%. See the kind of quandaries I get into? My advice is to assess those laughs carefully: Great big full-throated holler fills the room confidently. Sneaky little nose laugh just barely slips out. Machine gun dolphin squeal sends you diving for cover. To name a few. Maybe you can come up with a few more (only this time, good) examples. In order to really know someone, and size them up, you have got to have a sense of their laughter. Howard Dean, are you listening? Snort.

So why then, are you a Republican, they ask. Suppress the usual ribald retort, I tell myself. Frankly, it is because I can define who I am politically, is the sincere reply. And then, getting on my high horse will launch into it: Look, there is this guy named Dan Evans. Used to be a politician. Never screwed up. Never wrote a book. So, if you are all hemp-and-patchouli, have never heard of the guy. But he used to rock the system. Did wild stuff, like put together bi-partisan coalitions to cut out the fringes at both extremes - and actually got good government bills passed in Olympia – on issues like urban growth, the environment and pro-choice laws. Yes, I know it sounds crazy. It was another time. None of the stresses we have to deal with today, just stuff like Vietnam and Cold War nuclear conflict. It was mild era. In my deepest yearnings, I know we can get back to that time again. You Republicans, just so retrograde, comes the reply.

Then there’s the economy, stupid. I developed this “life style” while in college, as my umbrage grew at the professors who railed against capitalism – and savaged any attempt at civil discourse. To hear (and then be expected to regurgitate) that the predatory entrepreneurial instincts of our society should be suppressed, and made more humane by the guiding hand of government programs - led straight to haircuts and polo shirts for so many of us “neo” conservatives. But that hemp hat does look kind of practical for working in the greenbelts.

P. Scott Cummins = The Urbane R