More warnings of civil war for Uganda

American NGO predicts instability in 2006

by Kakaire A. Kirunda The Daily Monitor Uganda

UGANDA is set for civil turmoil as next month's election is seen to be tainted, a United States based NGO, Power and Interest News Report (PINR) has said.

Based in Chicago, PINR is an independent organisation that utilises open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis in the context of international relations. PINR's forecast is contained in a report titled 'Uganda: Museveni on the Ropes, Instability Ahead' that was released yesterday.

The report said, "With early polls showing Besigye with substantial lead over Museveni in Uganda's major towns, the state is set for civil disorder as the election is seen to be tainted."

The report, which heavily emphasises that President Yoweri Museveni's grip on power is failing, bases its assertions on recent political developments that led to foreign aid cuts. It also cites the desertion of Museveni by his former colleagues and loss of confidence before the donors.

The report said as the Besigye affair unfolded, Uganda was hit by the International Court of Justice's ( ICJ) judgment that Museveni's invasion of the DR Congo and occupation of Ituri violated the norms of non-use of force and non-intervention. The ICJ further ruled that Uganda's invasion led to numerous violations of international law (burning villages, recruiting child soldiers, looting and appropriating natural resources, among others), and owed the DRC reparations."

With a debt of $4 billion and yearly revenue collection at $700 million, Uganda would be crippled by a reparation payment anywhere near the DRC's demands," the report reads. It adds: "He (Museveni) also faces a continuing insurgency in the north from the Lord's Resistance Army rebels, which he has not been able to quell and rising unemployment and poverty rates." However, in the same analysis, PINR said there was no reason to believe that the opposition would be able to heal Uganda's divisions if it won the presidency and a parliamentary majority.

This, according to PINR, leaves few donor countries promising alternatives as a slide toward instability gains momentum.

“With similar scenarios unfolding in Kenya and Zanzibar, East Africa appears to be poised for a period of civil conflict,” the report sums up.

Urbane Analysis: See this report from May 2005 where the World Bank makes a very similar prediction - and don't miss this touchstone 1999 report where the World Bank illustrates how official corruption created this problem. Citizens of donor countries simply have to insist that their governments stop toadying to corrupt governments in developing countries - and similarly insist that their governments prosecute its citizens (and corporations) which engage in bribery overseas. Unless and until we do that, our money is punishing the very people (the poor) we most want to help.