Kerry’s Difficult Task Ahead

Swaying the Dean Faithful to Kerry
by Brendan Vaughn, Guest Blogger

Recently, I was reflecting on the great number of Bush Lied!!! yard signs and bumper stickers (and in one case, a bumper-yard-sign) and the definite lack of Kerry paraphernalia in Magnolia. In fact, I think Bush-Cheney support is easily trumping Kerry in 98199. So this leads me to wonder: Can the Anti-Bush be converted to Pro-Kerry?

How better to analyze such a question than with numbers, provided directly from the source, the Federal Elections Commission. Being an engineer, I’ll give you the facts in plain words and let you decide for yourself. I collected the information for contributions over $50 made in the 98199 zip code, 118 in total. In all, there were $88,546 total contributions ranging from $50 to $2,000, with an average contribution of $750.

Of these 118 contributions, 75% were to Democratic candidates, and 25% were to Bush; however, the Democrats only captured 61% of the total money contributed. This is more easily seen when one looks at the average contribution to both Democrats ($608) and Republicans ($1,188). Thus the Democrats are getting donations in larger numbers, but much smaller amounts.

If we look at specific candidates in the Democratic race, only three are truly worthy of any comment: Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean, and John F. Kerry. Joe Lieberman has perhaps the most interesting donation history in Magnolia, receiving only 6 donations. However, these donations were more than 17% of the total donations to Democrats. This is fairly astounding, considering Lieberman carried 0 delegates in the primaries and was quick to drop out after early defeats.

Howard Dean’s story is quite interesting too, proving his true grassroots support. Howard Dean received 48% of the 89 contributions to Democrats, but that only amounted to 26% of the $54,000 sent their way. Hence, he was getting widespread funding in low numbers, truly grassroots. His average contribution was only $326; the lowest in Magnolia save for Dick Gephardt’s two paltry contributions of $275 total.

John F. Kerry only captured 53% of the dollar amount contributed to the Democrats in Magnolia, not exactly a ringing endorsement. Though this was more than twice what Howard Dean received, we have yet to see those Kerry faithful being vocal about their support.

Yard signs in Magnolia six months ago were resoundingly in favor of Howard Dean. Even that notable duct-taped bumper-yard-sign was for Howard Dean. Now, the owner of the red sports car has elected to devalue his car now with a Bush Lied!!! yard sign. Perhaps, in time, the owner will switch to a duct-taped Kerry sign.

So back to the question at hand: Can the Anti-Bush be converted to Pro-Kerry? My conclusion: Perhaps, but probably not in time for November; though will this affect the political outcome in Magnolia? Nope.

Guest Blogger Brendan Vaughn lives with a silly grin on his face, in Magnolia.

All data was from fundrace.org, which provided a snapshot from 1/1/03 to 4/30/04, the most recently updated funding provided by the FEC.